A running record of where AI stands, week by week: the capability and governance dials, the scenario mix, and what moved.
| Edition | Capability | Governance | Scenario mix (%) | What moved | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 64 | 31 | Soft 35 · Turbulent 45 · Shock 12 · Catastrophe 8 | open cheap ai 74→75 | AA 58 / Arena 1525 HOLD; UE 4.2% HOLD; Haiku 5.5 + Sonnet cache cut; Open/cheap +1; containment CLEAR; C1 watch continues; weights HOLD |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 64 | 31 | Soft 35 · Turbulent 45 · Shock 12 · Catastrophe 8 | labor 35→36, open cheap ai 73→74, energy 55→56 | BLS UE 4.2%; Arena #1 Gemini 4 Argon (prelim); containment ALERT; Labor/Open/Energy +1; weights HOLD |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 64 | 31 | Soft 35 · Turbulent 45 · Shock 12 · Catastrophe 8 | capability 62→64, agents 58→60, us frontier lead 68→69, open cheap ai 72→73, governance 32→31 | Opus 5.5 AA +5; OpenAI Sep 20 escape; Capability/Agents UP; weights HOLD |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 62 | 32 | Soft 35 · Turbulent 45 · Shock 12 · Catastrophe 8 | All dials held | Gemini containment disclosure; dials HOLD |
| Sep 14, 2026 | All dials held | First weekly refresh after baseline | |||
| Sep 13, 2026 | All dials held | first full briefing |